Mortgage Applications Are Rising—Here’s Why That Matters
The Headlines Say the Market is Tough — But That’s Not the Whole Story
Yes, mortgage rates are still high. Yes, affordability remains a challenge. But here’s what most headlines are missing: subtle — yet meaningful — signs of life in the housing market.
Let’s start with one of the most reliable leading indicators in real estate: mortgage purchase applications.
Applications are up year over year, even though rates remain above 6.5%. It’s not a boom. It’s not a frenzy. But it is a sign that buyers are starting to stir — and that change matters.
What Are Mortgage Purchase Applications, Anyway?
They’re exactly what they sound like: when a buyer applies for a mortgage to purchase a home. What makes them so valuable is that they reflect buyer intent 30 to 90 days before a sale actually happens. In other words — they show us what’s coming before it hits the headlines.
In the first 10 weeks of 2025, we’ve seen:
✅ 4 positive weeks
➖ 3 flat weeks
❌ 3 negative weeks
That might not sound groundbreaking, but it’s the first time in a long time we’ve seen consistent year-over-year growth. And when applications go up, it’s often a sign that more buyers are getting serious.
Flashback: Early Peaks in 2023 and 2024
In both 2023 and 2024, home sales saw an early-year pop — then things cooled off.
Why? Mortgage rates.
After rates spiked above 8% in late 2023, they briefly dropped to around 6.63% in January 2024. That small drop was enough to bring some buyers back into the game. But as rates rose again, momentum stalled.
In short: early enthusiasm faded fast once affordability tightened again.
Why 2025 Feels Different
What makes this year stand out is that mortgage applications are rising — even without a big rate drop.
As of mid-March 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 6.7%. Not ideal, but much more tolerable than the 8% peaks we saw just a few months ago.
And buyers are responding.
“Unlike the last few years when rates have gone up and purchase application data is negative, it's still positive on the weeklies and the year over year. It was a long time ago since I've been able to say that.”
— Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire Daily Podcast
What We’re Personally Seeing on the Ground
In our own business, we’ve seen a huge uptick in buyers entering the market over the past three weeks. Showings are up, urgency is rising, and we’re seeing multiple offer situations return — especially in the first-time homebuyer price point.
It’s clear that many buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines are now ready to move, even without major rate relief.
Final Thoughts
The market may still have its challenges, but the shift is real. Purchase applications are trending up, buyers are re-engaging, and momentum is starting to build — especially for those who’ve been waiting for any sign of improvement.
If you’re considering buying or selling this spring, now is the time to start the conversation. Subtle shifts often turn into major moves.